Commodity market concerns: What the metal and plastic experts are saying
Disruption is becoming the “new norm” for Canada’s HVAC industry as cross-border tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainty around USMCA’s fate continue to impact material costs. Earlier this month, metals and plastics experts came together to discuss how these factors are playing out and what they could mean for manufacturers.
The conversation took place during Supply Chain Dive’s Supply Chain Outlook event on July 15, 2026. It featured Scott Breen, President of the Can Manufacturers Institute; Perc Pineda, Chief Economist at the Plastics Industry Association; and Katie Pyzyk, Packaging Dive Lead Reporter. Together, the panel explored the forces placing new pressure on metals and plastics markets.
Although the virtual roundtable framed its discussion around the packaging sector, it's easy to see how many of these same pressures affect HVAC manufacturers and contractors that rely on steel, aluminum and plastics. With North America's HVAC supply chain so tightly integrated, Canadian businesses that purchase equipment and components from U.S. manufacturers are likely to feel many of the same cost pressures.
Key takeaways from their talk include:
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Tariff pressure on metals is mounting. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, first introduced at 25% in 2018 and increased to 50% in 2025, are driving higher material costs and prompting manufacturers to source aluminum from new regions. For Canadian HVAC businesses, that can mean higher prices and added uncertainty for equipment, components and materials moving through tightly integrated North American supply chains.
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Plastic prices remain volatile. Resin prices rose roughly 6% in April and another 14% in May, with experts pointing to geopolitical tensions and global energy markets as key drivers. Although price increases have been uneven across plastics, the continued uncertainty is making it harder for manufacturers to forecast costs and plan investments. That volatility may also affect Canadian HVAC companies that rely on plastic components, piping, insulation, controls and packaging.
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The future of USMCA remains uncertain. Industry experts said uncertainty surrounding the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is creating challenges for manufacturers, though a renegotiated agreement could ultimately strengthen North American supply chains. For Canadian HVAC businesses that depend on the cross-border movement of equipment and components, the outcome will be especially important. As Pineda put it, “There is every rhyme and reason that we should continue to have this trade agreement.”
It's little wonder these issues have become top of mind for HRAI members and recurring themes at HRAI conferences and events. As trade policies and global supply chains continue to evolve, HRAI will continue following the developments that matter most to Canada's HVAC industry.
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