A Closer Look at the IEA’s Renewables 2021 Report
On Dec. 2, 2021, HRAI reported on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recently published Renewables 2021, a five-year forecast and analysis of the major trends in the global renewable energy market.
The 175-page report focused on four key trends: renewable electricity, biofuels, renewable heating and cooling, and renewable energy. Today, we will take a closer look at the IEA’s analysis of the global heating and cooling market.
Over the next five years, global heat demand is expected to rise by nearly 9 percent from current demand levels, or nearly triple when compared to 2011-2020.
While heat accounts “for a large share of final energy consumption [significantly more than electricity and transportation], renewable heat has until recently received limited policy attention globally compared with other end-use sectors.”
Europe currently leads the way with policies and/or incentives encouraging renewable heating and cooling. Globally, only 10 out of 46 countries at the end of 2020 “had renewable heat policies covering all sectors (residential and commercial buildings, public facilities and industry).”
Members can find a detailed country-by-country breakdown of the most recent policy commitments to renewable heating and cooling on Table 3.1, page 117 of the report.
According to the IEA, “global heat consumption in buildings is expected to remain stable” during 2021-2026 due largely to the offset created by increasing pressures from policymakers to make buildings and HVACR products more energy efficient. The IEA projects that the use of renewable heating in buildings will expand by nearly 35% by 2026.
“Renewable electricity is,” the IEA rightly points out, “the largest contributor to this growth, owing primarily to the rising share of renewables in the power sector, and – to a lesser extent – increasing reliance on electricity for heat in buildings (via electric heat pumps and boilers).”
The expansion and growing interest in heat pump technology are particularly relevant to the global renewable heating and cooling market in buildings. In Europe, for example, “heat pump sales have experienced double-digit growth over the past five years. As this expansion continues, the amount of ambient heat harnessed by electric heat pumps in the building sector is expected to almost double” by 2026.
With respect to industry and industrial processes, despite the significant increase in global heat consumption over the next five years, “renewables are expected to account for only one-fifth” of the projected 17 EJ in growth.
According to the IEA, “bioenergy makes the largest contribution to renewable heat progression in the industry, with consumption in 2026 projected to exceed 2020 levels by 1.2 EJ (up 14%).”
“The share of electricity in global industrial heat consumption is expected to make little progress” during 2021-2026, increasing by less than half a percent to 4.5%, with China accounting for nearly half of this “slow electrification trend.”
Nonetheless, the IEA projects that “renewable electricity used for heat in the industry” will expand by 60% by 2026.
Overall, the IEA report on the global heating and cooling market leaves us with three key takeaways.
In the building sector, the increasing reliance on renewables in the power sector and the growing deployment of heat pumps constitute “the main drivers of renewable heat growth in buildings.”
In the industrial sector, despite increasing contributions from modern bioenergy and electrification trends, “renewable heat consumption in the industry” will fail to keep pace with the growing heat demand over the next five years.
Last, while policymakers and industry stakeholders are increasingly turning to renewable heating and cooling solutions to address global climate change, particularly greater electrification of heat through heat pump technology, the IEA argues that what current trends indicate is that “much faster policy action globally in both industry and buildings” is required to meet net-zero by mid-century.
For more information, contact Stephen Chartrand at 1-800-267-2231 ext. 276, or email schartrand@hrai.ca.
Back to Newsletters
